SCBS Databook

Tags: monthly, databook
May 2022 A look back at Apr and ahead to MayThe SET is expected to consolidate in May as it faces several negatives: 1) a tighter monetary policy in the US via rate hikes and QT to combat high inflation; 2) a global economic slowdown; 3) a rise in domestic diesel price that will raise freight costs. We assign supports at 1,650 and 1,630 while upside is limited at 1,680 and 1,700.
April 2022 A look back at Mar and ahead to Apr  - We expect the SET to drop in April after rising in the second half of March as we see nothing solid to give it enough push to rise above the numerous negative factors that do not appear fully priced in such as high fuel costs hurting economic activities and eroding profitability, high inflation leading central banks to raise policy interest rate sooner and a high chance of an inverted yield curve. We assign the resistance zone for the month at 1,700-1,718 and supports at 1,650 and 1,620.
March 2022 A look back at Feb and ahead to Mar - The SET in Mar 2022 is expected to continue to fluctuate on externals after the end of earnings season. The situation in Ukraine is top of mind right now, though we do not expect it to escalate to become World War III. We have assigned March supports at 1,650 and 1,620; resistance at 1,700-1,720. Another key driver is the mid-March FOMC meeting.
February 2022 A look back at Jan and ahead to Feb  -  The SET in Feb 2022 is likely to be highly volatile, moving in the range of 1,600-1,680. Although the FOMC meeting is past, the details will not be released until the minutes are and until then, we expect investors to remain concerned about a tighter-than-expected monetary policy. We expect upside to be limited as well as downside. We assign support at around 1,600 as economic recovery and earnings season may help the market.
January 2022 A look back at Dec 2021 and ahead to Jan 2022 -  In Jan 2022, the SET is expected to be highly volatile as the number of daily new cases of omicron will likely shoot up after the long New Year holiday, although new studies show fewer will require hospital treatment. Government measures will boost market sentiment and we expect the market to zigzag up to test 2021’s high of 1,660. We assign farther resistance at 1,670 and supports at 1,615-1,625 and 1,600.