SCBS Databook

Tags: monthly, databook
September 2020 The SET is expected to move sideways in the range of 1,300-1,350 with resistances at 1,337 and 1,355 and support at 1,310 and 1,290. Good news may come from progress in COVID-19 treatment and vaccine development and further recovery in economic data. Bad news is likely to be from greater US-China tension and local politics. A fall in oil prices is downside risk for the SET and will keep it from breaking through 1,290-1,300.

The SET zigzagged down in Aug, weak 2Q20 as expected. The SET fell below 1,300 for the first time in three months while 765 listed companies announced 2Q20 results, which showed a 47%YoY contraction, hurt by a plunge in economic activities as the government responded to COVID-19. The 32%QoQ surge was mainly due to inventory gains in Energy. Sectors recording YoY and QoQ growth were Agriculture, Appliances and Medical Supplies, Insurance, Packaging, Construction Materials and Electronic Parts. Contractions both YoY and QoQ were seen in Food, Bank, Property Development, Contractor, Commerce, Healthcare and Hotels.

In Aug, foreign investors were net sellers (12th month) at Bt27.7bn, larger than the July net sell of Bt10bn. They raised holdings in ICT and TRANS but reduced in ENERG and COMM. MSCI Thailand underperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut SET 2020 estimates by 4.9%; it also cut Hong Kong (-2.3%) and Indonesia (-3.7%), but raised Taiwan (+2.7%) and India (+1.3%).

We expect earnings to gradually improve in 2H20. We expect some of the hardest hit industries (Hotel, Entertainment, Financials, Airlines, Automotive) to continue challenged, while other industries such as Food & Beverage, Electronics, Retail, ICT, Land and Rail Transportation, Healthcare and Packaging will see improvement thanks largely to high flexibility in controlling cost. We see three factors to focus on in 2H20: 1) better cost reduction strategies; 2) debt trend and 
3) adaptive new growth strategies post COVID-19. We are concerned that Thai companies are holding their breath on the strength of revenue recovery. If revenue stays weak, we believe capital increases will be needed in order to deal with a liquidity crunch in 2H20, particularly at SMEs and tourism related companies.

This month: Domestic: 1) Sep 1 – CPI for Aug; 2) Aug 3 – Consumer confidence for Aug. Foreign: 1) Sep 1 – CN Caixin manufacturing PMI for Aug, US ISM manufacturing PMI for Aug; 2) Sep 4 – US non-farm payroll, unemployment rate for Aug; 3) Sep 8 – EU/JP GDP for 2Q20; 4) Sep 10 – ECB meetings; 5) Sep 11 – US CPI for Aug and 6) Sep 15-16 – FOMC meetings.

August 2020 The SET is expected to continue to trail down in August, with recovery hampered by: 1) surging COVID-19 cases in many countries; 2) drop in oil demand and 3) US-China tension. COVID-19 is heading up in many countries, weighing on economic recovery, which will be seen in July’s economic data. The surge in COVID-19 infections will make it necessary to step back on reopening economies, curtailing economic activities and oil consumption. Oil prices will also be pressured on the supply side after OPEC+ reduces its output cuts in August to 7.7mnbpd from 9.7mnbpd. We assign resistances for the month at 1,330 and 1,350 and supports at 1,300 and 1,270.

The SET moved sideways in July and ended little changed. July saw both positive and negative factors. The key positive was progress in a COVID-19 vaccine, with many drug makers already beginning late-stage human trials. In Thailand, the sixth phase of COVID-19 easing, including allowing entry to a selected group of foreigners after no local transmission of COVID-19 for 60 days, boosted sentiment. However, many external negative factors hurt: globally, new cases continued to make new highs daily and led to some cities to reimpose lockdowns, slowing recovery. Rising US-China tension means the second phase of a trade deal is unlikely.

In July, foreign investors were net sellers (11th month) at Bt10bn, smaller than the June net sell of Bt23bn. They raised holdings in ICT, COMM and ENERG but reduced in BANK and TRANS. MSCI Thailand underperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan on the 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut SET 2020 earnings estimates again by 4.4% as well as India’s (-4.7%) and Singapore’s (-4.6%), but raised projections for Hong Kong (+1.0%), Malaysia (+0.9%) and Taiwan (+0.6%).

Banks have reported 2Q20 earnings and others are beginning theirs. The Bank sector earnings came to Bt30bn, -42%YoY and -33%QoQ, worse than market anticipation, as banks set higher provisions and fee income was lower with a sharp fall in NIM despite beats in loan growth and opex. As ~40% of loans are umbrellaed by the relief measures, banks still face high asset quality risk. Around 100 companies in other sectors have been previewed by analysts, who expect total earnings of ~Bt71bn, -42%YoY but +130%QoQ. Expected QoQ growth is due to no inventory loss in PETRO in the quarter (which was high in 1Q20).

This month:  Domestic: 1) Aug 5 – CPI for Jul, BoT’s MPC meeting; 2) Aug 6 – Consumer confidence for Jul. Foreign: 1) Aug 3 – JP 2Q20 GDP, CN Caixin manufacturing PMI for Jul, US ISM manufacturing PMI for Jul; 2) Aug 5 – US ISM service PMI for Jul; 3) Aug 7 – US non-farm payroll, unemployment rate; 4) Aug 12 – US CPI for Jul; 5) Aug 14 – CN industrial production and retail sales for Jul.

July 2020 The SET is expected to fall further in July after beginning a consolidation in June. Key pressures are: 1) Sharp surge in COVID-19 cases, especially in the US where new cases rose from 30k per day in Apr to 40k per day in Jun, slowing economic recovery; 2) US-China conflicts undermining the trade deal; 3) tight market valuation, because though the SET is already down 100 points from a high of 1,455, fundamental valuation is still tight at 2020F PER of 16.8x, +1SD of seven-year average, and 4) weak 2Q20F earnings as it bore the full brunt of COVID-19, but recovery is expected in 2H20. We assign resistances for the month at 1,350 and 1,390; supports are 1,285 and 1,265.

SET disconnected from the Thai economy Toughening out the damage to the economy from COVID-19, the SET has been supported by capital inflows from QE, window-dressing and SSFX. Investors are also over-optimistic on the economy after reopening. The SET rose to midway between its lowest point and where it was before COVID-19. A full 17% of stocks in the SET100 are already back to pre-pandemic levels. We believe the SET is reaching a turning point: Investors may switch from short-term recovery and low-base effect to fundamentals and business survival.

In Jun, foreign investors were net sellers (10th month) at Bt23bn, less than the May net sell of Bt32bn, raising holdings in ENERG, PROP and COMM but cutting in ENERG and CONMAT. MSCI Thailand outperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan for the 3-month period but underperformed on 1-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut estimates again by 3.7%, but Thailand’s cuts were less than the 10.1% in Indonesia, 8.6% in India and 5.8% in the Philippines. Hong Kong’s estimates were raised by 3.4%.

Watch market valuation and focus on defensives. The SET is trading on 2020F PER at 16.8x (+1SD away from seven-year average) and 2021F PER at 14x (-1SD away from seven-year average). Earnings yield gap is at 5.3%, indicating that the capital market is more attractive than the bond market. We expect policy interest rate to reach 0% within 1-2 years, leading investors to accept a higher PER. SCBS values fundamentals and growth stories over relative valuation. We assign 2021F SET index target at 1,400-1,450 (3-7% upside from yesterday) as we expect 2021F earnings to come in below 2019’s (SET index closed at 1,560 at the end of 2019 with an average of 1,640). We recommend investors buy when the SET falls below 1,300 in order to increase margin of safety during a volatile period. We expect cyclical stocks’ earnings to be downgraded while defensive stocks’ earnings are expected to be upgraded.

This month:  Domestic: 1) Jul 2 – Consumer confidence for June; 2) Jul 3 – CPI and core CPI for Jun. Foreign: 1) Jun 14-15 – BOJ meeting; 2) Jul 16 – ECB meeting; 3) Jul 16 – CN GDP 2Q20; 4) Jul 28-29 – Fed meeting.

June 2020 Stay wary of market consolidation in June. At 1,400, investors are expected to take profit as: 1) Containment of COVID-19 and easing in lockdowns appear to be priced into Thai and foreign stock markets. Many investors also expect a V-shaped economic recovery. 2) SET valuation is already tight as 2021F PER is over 18x. 3) High speculation in mid- to small-cap stocks, evidenced by a surge in mai and sSET of 12.6%MoM and 7.7%MoM while the SET rose just 4.9%MoM and SET50 only 4.0%MoM in May. 4) US-China tension. Watch to see if the SET decides to extend the short-selling measures. If these are not extended from Jun 30, volatility will be higher. We assign resistances for June at 1,365 and 1,390 and supports at 1,300 and 1,270.

SET 1Q20 earnings plunged 60%YoY and 52%QoQ, hurt by COVID-19. Net profit was Bt100bn, below the average of Bt220-240bn. ENERG and PETRO saw the largest losses at Bt21bn and Bt6.9bn respectively from inventory losses and drops in sales volume and price. Hotels and media also reported a net loss on the disappearance of travel and outdoor activities. TRANS, ICT, PROP, COMM and FIN reported net profit but this was down sharply on a YoY basis. Only ETRON was able to report growth both YoY and QoQ, mainly from extra gains. Though performances were unstable, we saw no clear warning signal in 1Q20. We believe the worst has passed and expect recovery in 2H20.

In May, foreign investors were net sellers (9th month) at Bt32bn, smaller than the April net sell of Bt47bn. They raised holdings in BANK but reduced in ICT, PROP and ENERG. MSCI Thailand outperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan for the 1- and 3-month period but underperformed on the 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut estimates again by 8.44%, but Thailand’s cuts were less than the 13.0% in the Philippines, 9.3% in Malaysia and 9.1% in Singapore. Lowest cuts were in China and Taiwan at 2.4% in each.

SET rises on high expectations. Although the government decided to extend the state of emergency for another month (to end on June 30), investors shrugged this off and are focused on earnings recovery after the lockdown ends. This has made valuation very tight as investment analysts have not yet raised earnings forecasts. However, if recovery is clearly seen, earnings upgrades are expected and this would bring valuation back to normal, perhaps in 2H20.

This month: Domestic: 1) Jun 4 – Consumer confidence for May; 2) Jun 5 – CPI and core CPI for May; 3) Jun 24 – MPC meeting. Foreign: 1) Jun 4 – ECB meeting; 2) Jun 8 – JP final GDP for 1Q20; 3) Jun 9-10 – FOMC meeting; 4) Jun 15-16 – BOJ meeting; 5) Jun 18 – BOE meeting.

May 2020 We expect the SET to consolidate in May after a steady rise in Apr. 1) We believe the SET and other stock markets have already priced in the easing in the COVID-19 pandemic and in states of emergency. 2) Governments and central banks will wait to see if earlier measures are effective before introducing further relief measures unless things get worse in May. 3) SET valuation over 1,300 is tight as it puts forward PE ratio over 15x. 4) Weak results in 1Q20 and negative outlook for 2Q20 will lead to portfolio downsizing and profit-taking on stocks that rose too fast too soon. 5) In the last ten years, the SET falls by 2% in May with probability of 80%. We assign resistances at 1,330 and 1,360 and supports at 1,220 and 1,170 in May.

The SET rose in Apr on high expectations of economic recovery. The SET closed at 1,301.66 on Apr 30, +15.6%MoM and +34.3% from bottom of 969. The pace of recovery seems too fast compared to past crises. COVID-19 pandemic appears to be easing. Liquidity risk in money markets and credit risk in bond markets were relieved by central bank and government measures, especially the Fed which provided liquidity through an unlimited QE program. The US government struggled to help businesses and people with a budget of over 10% of GDP. The Thai government has launched three phases of measures to relieve the impact of COVID-19. This generated investor confidence and they returned to buy risky assets again.

In Apr, foreign investors were net sellers (8th month) at Bt47bn, smaller than the March net sell of Bt78bn. They raised holdings in ENERG, COMM and PROP but reduced in BANK and ICT. MSCI Thailand outperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan for the 1-month period but underperformed in 3-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut estimates again by 9.4%, the biggest cut in the region, with a 9.3% cut in South Korea, 7.9% in the Philippines, 7.6% in Indonesia, 5.8% in Singapore and 4.8% in Hong Kong. Only India was revised up (3.7%).

Sell in May – preparing for market consolidation. In the last ten years, foreign investors were net sellers in May six times with an average value of Bt16bn while institutional investors were net buyers eight times with a smaller average value of Bt4.9bn. This led the SET to usually fall in May (80% probability) with average negative yield of -2.0%. This recent market recovery seems too fast, and too soon. If there is a second wave of COVID-19, the deep disappointment would sink the market again. It is too fast for the SET to return to where it was before the pandemic, particularly with 2021 earnings forecasts lower than 2019’s. Many industries will find it difficult to grow after the pandemic is contained as Thailand has been experiencing low inflation and low GDP growth.

This month:  Domestic: 1) May 5 – TH CPI and core CPI for Apr; 2) May 18 -TH GDP 1Q20. Foreign: 1) May 7 – BOE meeting; 2) May 13 – UK 1Q20 GDP; 3) May 15 – EU 1Q20 GDP; 4) May 18 – JP 1Q20 GDP

April 2020 The SET should come back up in April as the tumble in March has priced in fears over COVID-19 and central banks and governments have put stimulus packages in place to help soften the damage from the pandemic. In April, the Super Savings Fund (SSF), a mutual fund with tax privileges, will list and bring in new capital to support the market. However, COVID-19 will continue to hurt, particularly as it is hitting the US and Europe harder to where they are now the epicenters. Economists are expecting the global economy to go into recession this year. The market is also reeling from the plunge in crude price after Saudi Arabia went back to full production. A rise is limited to 1,160 and 1,190 with supports at 1,050 and 1,000.

SET seriously wounded in March. The SET is down by 29%YTD, with 16% of that in March alone, reaching 969.08, its lowest since Nov 2011. The market’s circuit breaker was triggered three times in the month. Behind the panic was the rapidity of the spread of COVID-19 plus the plunge in crude price, battering sentiment and leading to fund outflows and downward revisions of earnings. Although the market plunge and earnings downgrades dropped 12M forward PE to 11.3 (region’s lowest) this was not enough to stop the tumble. Downside risk is still open-ended.

In Mar, foreign investors were net sellers (8th month) at Bt78bn, surging from the net sell of Bt19.6bn in Feb. They raised holdings in ICT and TRANS but reduced in BANK, ENERG, PETRO and PROP. MSCI Thailand underperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan for the 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut estimates again by 10.8%, the biggest cut in the region, compared to a 6.33% cut in Singapore, 6.11% in Hong Kong, 5.77% in Malaysia, 5.66% in South Korea and 5.03% in Taiwan. Only Indonesia was revised up (0.77%). Our strategy in 2Q20 is geared to defensive stocks with stable growth, high earnings visibility, superior competitive advantage and attractive value: BDMS, BEM, BTS, CPF and MINT. When the virus is contained, we will likely see a strong recovery in tourism, refinery and electronics stocks such as AAV, AOT, AWC, ERW, CRC, HANA, KCE, SPA and SPRC.

“World in crisis: search for value” is our theme for 2Q20 strategy. The COVID-19 pandemic is forcing the world to face three crises: economic, financial and public health. The global economy is heading into a recession and to help stem the tide, governments and central banks have approved economic relief measures. Unfortunately, this has not shored up confidence, which will continue to fall until the pandemic can be contained. Our economists forecast Thai GDP to contract by 4% this year, bringing earnings downgrades. Although the SET looks cheap against the region, the low valuation is not attractive enough to halt the crash.

This month: Domestic: 1) Apr 2 – TH consumer confidence for Mar; 2) Apr 6 – CPI and core CPI for Mar. Foreign: 1) Apr 1 – US ISM manufacturing PMI for Mar; 2) Apr 3 – non-farm employment change and employment rate for Mar; 3) Apr 10 – US CPI and core CPI for Mar; 4) Apr 16 – CH GDP 1Q20; 5) Apr 29 – FOMC meeting.

March 2020 The SET should rebound with downside limited at 1,290-1,300 after shedding more than 200 points in just two months. The lower the price, the more attractive the value. SET PE ratio is only 14.3x on an assumed earnings growth of 5% this year if it falls to 1,300, which should bring funds back in. COVID-19 continues to be the critical factor. We expect the outbreak in China to improve and hope for rapid containment of the spread outside China. Investors are waiting for the Mar 5-6 OPEC meeting to see if it will cut production more, which will raise oil price, good news for oil-related stocks. We assign resistances at 1,360 and 1,400.

COVID-19 outbreak rattles stock markets and the global economy. The rapid spread and surge in new cases are generating concern of an economic slowdown to the point of contraction in 1Q20. However, the economy should stabilize in 2Q20 after China gradually opens back up for business, with economies fully recovering in 2H20. IMF expects the outbreak will slice 0.1-0.2% off global GDP this year. In Thailand, adding to the outbreak is the severe drought and delay in the FY2020 budget. Thailand’s GDP is expected to worsen in 1Q20 and revive in 2H20 in line with other countries. Our economist expects GDP growth at 1.0-1.5% this year, revised down from the previous forecast of 2.0%. The SET has plummeted more than 15% this year to a four-year low. The baht has weakened by more than 7% against the US dollar.

In Feb, foreign investors were net sellers (7th month) at Bt19.6bn. They raised holdings in ICT and PETRO but reduced in BANK and ENERG. MSCI Thailand underperformed MSCI APAC ex. Jan for the 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut estimates again by 4.1%, the biggest cut in the region, with a 3.17% cut in Singapore, 2.75% in South Korea, 2.21% in Hong Kong and 2.12% in Malaysia. Only India was revised up (0.81%).

SET downside seems limited at 1,300-1,350 with attractive valuation. We believe the market already has incorporated the bulk of the concerns over the outbreak, the GDP forecast cut and the earnings downgrades in its 15%YTD fall. 1,300-1,350 is a reasonable range at which to buy at an attractive valuation, with PE ratio at 15x (with estimated EPS growth of 5% for 2020). Some industries are only slightly affected by the coronavirus outbreak such as PETRO (although hurt by slimmer petrochemical spread, spread is still wider than in 4Q19), BANK (ROE at 5%), HELTH (six-year low PE ratio) and ICT (operations not affected by the epidemic). We expect market recovery in 2Q20.

This month:  Domestic: 1) Mar 17 – The State Prosecutor will decide whether to take legal action against Thanathorn for organizing a ‘flash mob”; 2) Mar 25 – BoT’s MPC meeting. Foreign: 1) Mar 2 – Effective date of MSCI quarterly indexes review; 2) Mar 5-6 – OPEC meets in Vienna; 3) Mar 12 – ECB meetings; 4) Mar 17-18 – FOMC meeting; 5) Mar 18-19 – BOJ meeting; 6) Mar 26 – BOE meeting.

February 2020 We expect the SET to recover in Feb as the clouds begin to disperse. The SET’s undervaluation will attract investors. Three issues: 1) Status of Wuhan coronavirus outbreak: The spread should slow as strict controls have been put in place worldwide. 2) Market valuation is attractive: The SET PE ratio is around 15x, which has upside of 100 points if we assume the market moves at its average PE ratio of 15.0-16.0x and 1Y forward EPS at 100. 3) Earlier OPEC meeting in February rather than March to discuss further production cuts to uphold crude price; a plus for oil-related stocks.

Old risks fade, new risks loom. 2020 opened with high hopes after the US and China announced the signing of a phase one trade deal and prepared to talk phase two, easing tensions between the two countries – as well as on economic and investment activities worldwide. The relief did not last long – new clouds came, both external and internal: the outbreak of a new coronavirus that will hit economic growth, an earlier onset of a drought and a further delay of 2-3 months in the FY2020 budget. BANK reported earnings misses of about 17% below consensus in 4Q19 because of high provisions. Big-caps PTTEP and SCC reported earnings in line. In Feb, stocks in real sectors will gradually release earnings. Cyclical stocks are expected to reported growth both YoY and QoQ off a low base while domestic stocks are expected to report earnings contractions in YoY and/or QoQ.

In Jan, foreign investors were net sellers for the sixth month at Bt17.3bn. They raised their holdings in ENERG and COMM but reduced in BANK and PETRO. MSCI Thailand underperformed MSCI APAC ex. Jan in 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month periods. Consensus cut estimates again by 2.1%, the biggest cut in the region, with a 1.33% cut in Indonesia, 0.74% in the Philippines and 0.2% in Singapore. Revised up were India (1.58%), Taiwan (0.78%) and Hong Kong (0.32%).

Heavy clouds raining on the Thai economy – flee to defensive stocks. The year got off to a troubled start - the outbreak of a new coronavirus, earlier onset of a drought and delays in the FY2020 budget. We have thus cut our 2020 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.7%, most slow in 2Q20. That being said, we do still expect a recovery in 2H20. As for the market, we expect earnings to shrink around Bt28bn or 4% of the previous estimate. In view of the clouds both without and within the country, we suggest playing defensive and/or high-dividend stocks. 

This month:  Domestic: 1) Feb 4 –NBTC to accept applications for 5G auction, qualification check on Feb 5-12, trial auction on Feb 13-14 and auction on Feb 16 ; 2) Feb 5 – BOT’s MPC meeting; 3) Feb 19-21 – no-confidence debate over six ministers; 4) Feb 20 – Criminal court to announce whether to a lawsuit filed by the Future Forward Party against 14 ECs regarding dissolution of FFFP. Foreign: 1) Feb 4 – US 2020 State of the Union Address; 2) Feb 12 – announcement of day of MSCI quarterly index review for 2Q20; 3) OPEC meeting to discuss deeper cuts.

January 2020 We see limited downside for the SET at 1,530-1,550 in Jan. Supports include: 1) Undervaluation: 1Y forward PE ratio is only at 15x. 2) A better outlook for the economy this year supports investment in risky assets like stock markets. 3) Eased US-China trade tension after settling on a phase one trade agreement. Investors are optimistic about upcoming second phase talks. 4) The January effect: The SET generally rises in Jan and we assess resistances at 1,600 and 1,620 but beware of selling of LTFs bought before 2016. If the SET falls to January supports, we suggest accumulating.

December, a dreary month: 2019, good in 1H but bad in 2H. Dec 2019 was a dreary month, with numerous pressures. On the plus side, the US and China finally agreed in principle on a phase one trade deal, averting more tariffs, but on the down side, politics heated up at home, worrying investors (banning of Future Forward Party, rally led by Thanathorn and cracks in the government coalition). The BoT’s cut its economic growth forecast for 2019F and 2020F while analysts cut market earnings estimates. Individual stocks also suffered. These pushed the SET into a fall of 0.7%MoM. The market was shored up by capital from LTFs and RMFs, with institutional investors net buyers of Bt24.8bn. In 2019, the SET rose in 1H from 1,563 to peak at 1,730, up 10.7%HoH, but then fell in 2H to 1,580, -8.7%HoH. SET yield in 2019 was -1.02%YoY.

Foreign investors net sold the SET for the fifth month at Bt24.5bn, upping holdings in ICT and PETRO while cutting ENERG and PROP. MSCI Thailand ETF again underperformed MSCI APAC ex. Japan in 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y periods. Consensus lowered SET earnings forecast for 2020F by 0.3% in Dec, with downward revisions seen also for Hong Kong (0.3%), Singapore (0.3%), Indonesia (1.0%) and Malaysia (1.4%) with revisions raised for China (0.1%), Taiwan (0.8%) and India (1.0%).

Will there be a “January effect”? In the last five years the SET has risen in January with an average return of 3.6%. Outperformers in January include BANK (average return of 4.9%), TRANS (4.8%) and ICT (4.7%). Stocks of interest are TCAP (average return of 5.8% with 100% probability of an increase), AOT (7.7%, 100% probability), INTUCH (6.8%, 100% probability), KKP (3.1%, 80% probability) and ADVANC (4.2%, 80% probability). For the past five years, institutional investors have been net buyers in Jan of an average of Bt7.3bn but foreign investors were net sellers in Jan three out of the five past years with an average net sell of Bt692mn. We expect institutional investors to again end Jan 2020 as net buyers.

This month:   Domestic:   1) Jan 1 – Land & building tax law takes effect. Minimum wage rises. 2) Jan 8-9 –Second and third readings of the budget bill, going to the senate on Jan 20, for royal endorsement on Jan 27.   Foreign:   1) 2H of Jan –US and China to sign phase one trade agreement; 2) Central bank meetings: Jan 20-21 – BOJ, Jan 23 – ECB, Jan 28-29 – FOMC, Jan 30 – BOE. 3) Jan 31 - Brexit deadline